10: The Future of Scientific Selling
The authors assert confidence that more companies will adopt scientific selling methods as their benefits are demonstrated in terms of sales results. Because there is more change in the business environment than in previous times, there is greater ability to adopt new methodologies. And in an age in which virtually every set of behaviors is analyzed, measured, and subjected to process, it seems that sales has been much neglected.
In a broader sense, the authors anticipate that four scientific disciplines will be increasingly applied to selling over the next ten years:
- Cognitive Science - Research into how consumers think about and perceive information and how this drives buying behavior
- Human Analytics - Research into the reasons people behave the way they do in specific situations
- Predictive Analytics - Research into the factors that result in a given outcome and application of statistical models to predict future performance
- Neuroscience - Research into the physical properties of the brain to better understand the reasons for behavior
Each of these is described in further detail.
Cognitive Science
Cognitive science studies the mind and the processes by which a person acquires and processes information (perception, memory, reasoning, etc.) and the influence this has on decision-making and behavior. It is being applied to the behavior of consumers and, with some reluctance, employees. The authors predict that it will "play a key role" in marketing over the next ten years.
The author then refers to the "educated buyer" as being a myth. While it's commonly accepted that information technology has created a more educated buyer who is capable of making decisions without the assistance of salesman, there is also the notion that our always-on lifestyle has created a state of permanent information overload: the novelty has worn off and many customers simply do not leverage the information resources at their disposal.
The author cites a survey (conducted by Ogilvy One Worldwide) that indicates about 70% of customers get information from sources that are "deceptive and useless" that leads them to make premature decisions based on "the wrong kind of information." (EN: This is an opinion survey of salesmen, so the responses are likely self-serving.)
The authors further suggest that "very few" buyers are capable of making an informed decision, and their false sense of being well informed leads them to make bad buying decisions. As such, the educated buyer is not an asset to his suppliers, but far more of a liability: left to his own devices, such a buyer will choose a product that fails to meet his needs, and blame that failure on the product itself.
Human Analytics
Human analytics examines behavior and skills: it considers the qualities of an individual to be predictive of the outcomes he will be able to achieve. Behavioral and skills assessments, such as those sold by the authors, will become more important to companies that seek to understand the employee and consumer behavior that creates the results.
Internally, tools like the PI and SSAT enable managers to assess the qualification of candidates and the potential of employees in a more quantifiable manner, as a means to better assess suitability and the potential to effect improvement through training and coaching.
The authors express a dim view of social media - while there's a great deal of interest in the new technology and a great preponderance of opinion that it is highly valuable, there is very little consensus about how it can be put to practical use. But there does seem to be some potential: a sales manager at a technology firm is quoted as saying he doesn't want his salesmen wasting valuable time "screwing around on Facebook."
This is the same sentiment many managers had toward computers in general, a few decades ago, before the value of technology was discovered. Even so, new technology such as social media undergoes a trial-and-error phase with little ability to measure and quantify its value, and it may well be that within the next ten years the potential of social media will be defined and realized in a valid way.
At the same time, there remains an indication that technology is not the right answer to anything. Particularly in the arena of training, virtual classrooms and e-learning have been notoriously ineffective, and comparison studies between computer-based training and instructor-led training demonstrate a consistent and significant difference in the performance outcomes of trainees, in favor of the latter.
Predictive Analytics
Predictive analysis is the use of statistical models of historical data as a means to predict future events. In business, predictive models are already in use to identify trends and patterns in historical data and use them as a basis for mitigating risk, based on the assumption that future events will follow the same patterns. However, the use of predictive analytics has thus far been outward-facing, to monitor the behavior of consumers in the market or trends in the overall economy, and it is only recently been used to measure internal factors.
The authors assert that statistical models will be better able to consider a broader range of data and more accurately predict future outcomes "as computers grow faster." (EN: I don't buy this premise at all - the speed of computers was once an issue, but not anymore. The problem these days is the models and data that are fed to the computer, not the device's ability to process it.)
One example is the use of CRM data that is being leveraged to create a holistic view of the customer by bringing together data about customers from various departments in a company that were previously detached and isolated, such that every interaction with a customer in every channel can be assessed.
Neuroscience
Neuroscience, under various names, is an interdisciplinary approach to studying the nervous system (particularly the brain), bringing together biology, physics, philosophy, psychology, linguistics, and other disciplines to examine the functional aspects of human cognition.
For example, one area of neuroscientific study considers the patterns of electrical energy in the brain, indicating the parts of the brain that are active in response to a given stimulus or during the performance of a given activity. Once recent study (Bhatt) considered the way in which people's brains are active in situations where they are trying to convince someone else to believe something. The authors aver that similar studies "will undoubtedly be conducted" on other aspects of human behavior that have releance to the buying and selling processes.
There follows a long bit about the brain and its structures (EN:I am omitting the details because it's highly theoretical and I have seen this very study refuted and debunked by other sources) as an example of the way that understanding the function of the human brain during decision-making processes suggests more effective ways to influence buyers.
While neuroscience is in its infancy, it is already showing great promise to apply scientific measurement to behaviors, in order to replace the current assumptions and beliefs based on unscientific observation.
A Final Word
The application of "real science" to the business of selling has the potential to create a "true revolution" in the practice of selling as well as that of managing sales professionals.
Because the sales profession has been plagued by the inaccuracy of gut-feel and instinct, there is considerable potential for improvement by employing scientific selling methods as an accurate, predictable, reproducible, and reliable method for analyzing past performance and predicting future outcomes, and thereby formulating more informed strategies for achieving peak performance.
However, scientific selling is going to be slow to catch on. Old ideas die hard and people are reluctant to experiment with new methodologies, even when there is substantial evidence of their potential. Competitive advantage will go to early adopters and first-movers who leverage the potential of scientific selling.