Looking Forward
The author suggests that we are at the "dawn" of persuasive technology, in that technology is rapidly evolving and many of its applications represent pioneering experiments rather than mature products. It is likely that they will continue to have a high failure rate, and the developers will learn from these mistakes to evolve far more sophisticated applications.
Due to the rapid rate of evolution in technology and the considerable amount of money at stake, there will be continued interest in developing the persuasive capabilities of technology products.
The same technology capabilities should enable research to evolve at a fast pace, as computer products have unparalleled capability to monitor and report on the interactions of users, which is largely unprecedented by previous technologies. Researchers no longer need to conduct studies in a contrived laboratory environment, at considerable cost and time, but can monitor the results and adjust experimental parameters in real time.
It must be conceded that quick work is not the same as good work, and he expects there to be many "quick" studies that lack proper design, careful analysis of results, and sufficient peer review, and such studies will be undertaken by unqualified individuals who do not answer to a governing body. Given the commercial interest in keeping trade secrets from competitors, it is also likely that the results of many studies will never be subject to academic scrutiny.
Five Future Trends
Based on the author's experience, he identifies five trends that he expects to continue in the near future.
Trend 1: Pervasive Persuasive Technologies
Persuasive technology systems will continue to spread, becoming part of the life of most citizens in every environment. They will continue to be present in desktop and web applications, and will also be designed into everyday consumer products: vehicles, appliances, and even clothing will be enhanced by technology and embedded computing.
In particular, he sees a trend toward "smart" products and "smart" environments, and these will not be focused merely to make tasks more effective and efficient, but on altering the behavior of the user, who is a human component of the "smart" environment.
Trend 2: Growth Beyond Buying and Branding
Of the domains for persuasive technologies outlined in the first chapter, the largest growth area in the near term will be commerce - buying and branding through interactive systems.
He categorizes current attempts at influencing computer behavior as shoddy, overwrought, poorly designed, and annoying, and as such they have met with more resistance than acceptance by consumers, but as technology evolves, companies will learn to market to consumers in a more sophisticated and effective manner.
It is also likely that companies that have traditionally had little to do with technology will begin to leverage it potential, specifically, companies with core competencies in finance, fitness, healthcare, insurance, personal relationships, education, and political activism will see technology as a means to accomplish their ends.
Trend 3: Increase in Specialized Persuasive Devices
The author expects that, rather than continuing to use the computer or mobile device as an all-purpose tool, companies will develop devices that have a very narrow propose and focus, including new devices and extending the capabilities of existing devices that are not presently computer enhanced.
The factors that will drive the specialization of devices are the effectiveness of specialization, the trend toward miniaturization, decreasing cost of computing components, and the progress of network connectivity.
Trend 4: Increased Focus on Influence Strategies
The continued study of computers as persuasive technology will drive companies to develop more sophisticated influence strategies. The attempt of devices to influence attitude and behavior will be more subtle and more effective, and companies will recognize the value of persuasion and influence in increasing market share in a competitive environment.
The present trend among marketers is to look beyond the value of a one-time transaction to the development of brand loyalty, with a goal of increasing more share-of-wallet by selling more products to existing customers and increasing the frequency and quantity of purchases. It is persuasion that will help to achieve these goals.
Another factor is the trend of companies to consider the "user experience" of their products, considering the customer's impression of the company in a more holistic manner, beyond the short-term consideration as an alternative in the buying process. This also requires the adoption of influence tactics to convince the customer to consider the company and its products in a broader context.
Trend 5: A New Focus on Influence Tactics
As companies recognize the importance of influence to their goals (Strategy), they will seek to improve the way in which they plan and execute activities to achieve those goals (tactics), which includes every interaction between the consumer and the product, the company, and other consumers.
While the number of influence strategies is finite, the potential tactics for implementing strategy is virtually limitless, and the evolution of computing technology is constantly increasing the number and variety of tools at the disposal of those who wish to exert influence.
It is also worth noting that persuasion tactics are likely to come under the increasing scrutiny of legislators because of their potential impact on the public and their potential (and often times realized) misues for unethical or criminal purposes.
Looking Forward Responsibly
The trends listed above are the author's suggestions for the "next wave" of computers as persuasive technology. Some will materialize, others may not, and new ones will emerge. Given the pace of progress, it is difficult to predict where technology is headed.
Specifics aside, the author is convinced that technology will become more deeply embedded in everyday life, and there will always be an interest in using technology as a means and a medium to influence the behaviors and attitudes of those that use it.
With that in mind, the author echoes his purposes in writing the present book: to enhance the collective understanding of persuasive technology so that individuals will be better informed of the use of technology to persuade them, operators will be more deliberate in their approach to using persuasive technology, and that with this mutual understanding, both will be encouraged to provide and utilize persuasive technology products in ways that will result in an enhanced quality of life.