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4: State of civilized nations

The present state (EN: of the author's time, and arguably our own) is not differentiated in terms of the means of production from the previous age: the productive activity is still herding and farming. The primary difference is one of security: the farmer and shepherd are generally not in fear of being attacked by their neighbors or raided by barbarians.

There can be no doubt that the population of the principle countries of Europe - England, France, Germany, Russia, Poland, Sweden, and Denmark - are presently much greater than in former times. The reason for this is the uninterrupted productivity of their peoples, which provides ample food with moderate effort.

He pauses to take issue with other theorists (namely, Hume), who supposed there to be vast civilizations in the ancient past. Much of this is splitting hairs, but it comes down to this: that details of ancient civilizations are scant, and it is only by inference that one can estimate their size - and given what we see in contrasting the population of primitive, early agrarian, and current times, the notion of cast civilizations in the ancient world seems specious, but not entirely implausible.

Malthus mentions that China, about which little was known in his time, was rumored to be a land of immense fertility whose fields bear two crops every year. He reckons that the population must be immense, and feels that much could be learned from such a nation in terms of the problems that arise from a huge population. (EN: Further speculation follows, but seems moot.)

Returning to Europe, Malthus finds that while the population has likely increased considerably since more primitive times, the present rate of progress appears to be slow: instead of doubling every 25 years, the present rate would require 300 of 400 years for a doubling to occur.

Given that the society as a whole is highly productive, and the passion between the sexes is not diminished, it is likely that the growth of population has been checked on the individual levels: per his earlier point, the wealthy and the poor must both consider the impact of adding to their households. While nations as a whole can produce great quantities of food, individuals may consider their own circumstances.

Malthus turns to anecdotal evidence of some men "even in the highest rank" who are reluctant to enter into a marriage for fear of loss of their social standing: having a family entails expenses, and having a sizable family lowers the wealth of an individual: a well-educated man with a generous income, burdened by a sizable family, would find himself a peer to the "lower class of tradesman" as his wealth is diminished by a sizable family.

Even among the middle classes, the sons of tradesmen and farmers are discouraged from marrying until they are settled in some business that may enable them to support a family. And it is likely a man may not feel himself well enough situated in life to begin a family until he is far advanced in age. Given the level of competition in every kind of business, it is not possible that all should become successful.

The common laborer can live with some degree of comfort as a single man, but is hesitant to consider the consequences of dividing the pittance of his wages among a household of four of five. Without knowledge or capital, there is little chance to increase his means to the point where he could feasibly sustain a family.

The servant class have even less prospect of achieving an income sufficient to sustain a family, as the compensation for their work is to live in the household of their masters, who would not be amenable to supporting a number of servants' children even if they had the means. To begin a family would mean leaving their households, where life is comfortable and work is easy, to become common laborers.

Malthus feels that this sketch of society is likely not much exaggerated. With very few exceptions, an individual of any social class has little motivation to intentionally start a family, and he believes that the same observation would hold in all "old states" with established and largely stagnant economies.