1: Question stated
Malthus mentions there have been "great and unlooked for discoveries" in recent years - primarily, the rapid spread of knowledge due to the printing press, and the fact that inquiry and investigation have been released from the shackles of religious and political constraints. The combination of the two hails the beginning of a period of great activity and change that will be highly influential on the future fate of mankind.
The future for mankind is, in a general sense, has been called into question, and there is contention as to whether it will be pointed in a direction of constant improvement or condemned to an ongoing cycle of happiness and misery.
The difficulty in resolving the question is that the two factions seem to keep "far aloof" from one another. Each is entrenched in its own viewpoint, eager to dismiss any dissenter for the most superficial of reasons, incapable of accepting the possibility that they are mistaken. And as a result "the cause of truth cannot but suffer."
It an acknowledged by unfortunate truth that philosophical theory will only be confirmed by experiment, and that it is largely unknown for a person who opposes an idea to accept it, and admit his own error, until he has been thoroughly disproved by reality - until which point he has been resistant to and in denial.
(EN: Malthus doesn't say as much, as it was likely dangerous to do so in his time, but the dissent between schools of theory was something of an improvement. Prior to this, the opinion of the church and state held sway, and any dissenters were silenced by force or threat, even when the majority opinion was wrong, and much misery was inflicted upon humanity in general by a small number of thugs who would not accept that they were pursuing the wrong course.)
Malthus then acknowledges that his argument is not new, but derives from previous theories; and that he feels that those who espouse a contradictory viewpoint are not to be dismissed lightly, as they are learned men who have been diligent and candid in reaching their own conclusions contrary to his own.
He also mentions that even the most absurd things may be suggested by philosophy and seem theoretically plausible, but until some visible evidence supports them, they remain mere speculations.
As an example, he indicates someone may claim that "man will ultimately become an ostrich." But until he can show some reasonable evidence (our necks are becoming longer, our lips hardening to form a beak, our hair becoming more like feathers), he should expect very little agreement from reasonable men.
That said, he gets on with it ... forwarding two basic postulates:
- Food is necessary for the existence of mankind
- People are fond of reproducing (The "passion between the sexes" will continue as it presently does)
No-one has supposed that the first is false, though some argue that the rate of population growth will be curtailed as the sexual impulse is restrained and may in time be extinguished - though he suggests that in this regard "no progress whatever has hitherto been made."
Ultimately, the thesis to which he is drawn is that the power of mankind to increase the population is geometrical, whereas the power of the earth to produce subsistence for mankind is merely arithmetical. And nature's correction, which occurs when the number of mankind outpace the ability to feed themselves, is mass famine.
The same holds true of the animal kingdom: where in a fixed location, animals exceed their food supply, there is starvation, sickness, and death; but mankind struggles against the inevitable, which leads to much misery and vice - in that some men in the struggle for scarce resources victimize their fellows, in a manner that is destructive and wasteful, detrimental to all of society.
And this is the cause of the ongoing cycle of happiness and misery that has been the historical situation of humanity, and likely will continue to be.
This has been a general outline of the argument that Malthus will examine in greater detail through the present essay.